1st and 3rd. Run with 1 out or wait?

At lower levels of amateur baseball this question seems almost ridiculous. Why would you wait? The catcher can't throw you out. Steal the base. However, when the catcher's arm becomes something of a option, this is a decision that must be thought out rather carefully.

First and third with 1 out. The runner at 3B can score on a fly ball and on some ground balls. However, the double play looms as a major deterrent for leaving the runner at 1B. If you ask the runner to try and get to 2B you run the risk of the player getting thrown out making the man on 3B less attractive with two outs. Yet, if you leave him at 1B, the double play remains a possibility. Another thought worth considering. By leaving him at 1st with 2 outs, you bring into play many 1st and 3rd possibilities. Coaches are usually more inclined to steal runs with 2 outs in a first and third than with 1 out and a first and third.

What are the variables that help to govern these decisions?

1) The inclination of the batter to ground into double plays.
2) The pitchers ability to induce double plays.
3) The defense behind the pitcher.
4) The speed of the runner at 1st.
5) The importance of the runner at 3rd.
6) The count in which the batter is hitting.
7) How late in the game is it?
8) Has the pitcher or coach demonstrated a fake to third move?
9) The catchers arm strength.

It is such a subtle decision that rages in a coaches mind when coaching at third base. Try and take the double play out of the equation and risk a possible throw out. OR, leave the runner at third with 1 out and hope for a fly out or ground ball that allows the runner to score.

This is one of those beautiful baseball scenarios where an analyst of the game cherishes.