Thursday, November 29, 2007

Bunt situation (give him one chance?)

In baseball circles there is some thinking that you could give a big swinger one shot at driving a run in or at least take one swing for a hit. Following that unsuccessful effort, a bunt is given. In this manner, you have placated the hitter by allowing him to swing at least once. But, in the end, the runner is advanced in a more conservative manner.

Is this sound baseball?

Well, I think it is negligent upon the coach to not recognize differences in counts and how they affect batters. The idea of giving a hitter one shot says "the count is neutral or an advantage count so go ahead, hit it hard." The statistics support this thinking in that averages certainly are higher when a batter is ahead in the count.

However, when the batter fouls of a pitch, the count changes and so does the likelihood of him getting a hit. Therefore, when the bunt sign is given, it is given under the idea that the chances of a hit have been dramatically reduced. If you're going to make an out anyway, you might as well make it a productive out.

Take note of how many times coaches will ask a hitter to do just this in a "bunt opportunity." It has everything to do with advantage vs. disadvantage counts and playing the percentages.

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