Do you use a pinch runner here?

Amateur baseball has many different rules than professional baseball. In addition, high school baseball has different rules than college baseball. One such rule difference is the idea of "free" substitution. In high school baseball you are allowed to take a player out of the game one time with no penalty. You may re-enter that play at any point in the game after he has been removed. This makes managing a high school game easier than its counterparts with respect to pinch runners. Here's what I'm talking about.

Tie game in the last inning. Leadoff batter(4 hitter) reaches on a walk. He isn't the fleetest of foot so you consider pinch running for him. In high school baseball it's a no brainer. But, in college and pro ball you must weigh the pros and the cons of the idea. Also, for discussion sake, let's say that the high school batter has already been substituted for to make all things equal.

The pros:

a) speed at 1st allows you to score on a hit in the gap.
b) speed at 1st takes pressure off of a would be bunt attempt by the batter. He doesn't have to be so precise.
c) there is no way to quantify how speed disrupts the pitchers mindset.
d) a) Statistics actually reveal that the odds of a runner scoring at 1st with no outs is higher than a runner at 2B and 1 out.

http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2006/07/empirical_analy_1.php

The con(but it's a big one):

If you don't score the run, the game continues with one of your best hitters on the bench.

Quite simply, it's one of the toughest decisions in the game.

I'm not going to opine that one way is better than another way. It has a lot to do with gut feel. But, I will suggest that in this situation what might be a best option is to wait until the runner gets into scoring position before pinch running. In this manner at least the runner can score on a single and if the batters bunt(assuming you bunt) isn't successful you still have one of your dangerous bats in the lineup for extra innings.

This scenario might also be a candidate for a bunt and run. This gives the runner at 1st a "head start" to 2B. The only caveat here is the batter better protect the runner.

It's a great debate and certainly one that allow you to second guess a manager. Just as an fyi, David Ortiz was removed in this very situation in the playoffs this past year. Terry Francona believed that speed was more valuable in the game in that spot than one of the greatest clutch hitters in baseball history. I think the runner scored. I was too busy thinking about what I would have done.

One last thought: if it's high school baseball and the cleanup hitter is the catcher or the pitcher you could always use a courtesy runner and not suffer any consequences. What a joke that is.