Sunday, January 20, 2008

1st and 3rd. (Tying run at 3rd, Winning run at 1st)

You're the offensive team, late in the game. What do you do?

At low levels of amateur baseball this might not be a decision at all. Most levels below Varsity baseball would steal the runner at 1st base and create a 2nd and 3rd. But what if the arm strength exists to potentially throw the base runner out at 2nd base. If that is the case, quite the decision looms.

Let's make the situation slightly more specific. Let's say there are 2 outs and a poor hitter is up. I know there are many more contingencies to making a decision than what is presented here but, let's think about it anyway.

As an offensive coach you must think to yourself- "What will the defensive team do?" Will they attempt to throw the runner out? Will they eat the ball? Will they check the runner at 3B and then try and throw the runner out? Will they throw to 3B? Will they throw to a cutoff man? Obviously, what the offense thinks they will do should affect what the offensive does.

Here are my opinions on the scenario.

If the hitter is a poor hitter(big deal) then the offensive team probably should be proactive in making the defensive team act on the play. This means that allowing the count to develop is very dangerous. Anytime you wait until the batter gets in a hole, there is a chance he could put the ball in play very early and eliminate any trickery. With a poor hitter in the box, bad idea!

So, I believe whatever is to be done, should be done early. How about these options?

a) Balk steal. Have the runner take off early to make a pitcher react. Maybe he balks and we get the game tied and the runner into scoring position?

b) Draw a throw from the pitcher. Get an extended lead and invite a rundown between 1st and 2nd.

c) Draw a throw from the catcher with a large secondary. Same idea as above with the rundown.

d) Steal stop. Straight steal of 2B but stop short of the bag creating a rundown between 1st and 2nd. There would be a great opportunity to score that runner at 3B if the ball is thrown.

So, if this situation presents itself and I don't trust the hitter. I would definitely choose one of the above scenarios. This isn't saying that they'll work. The defense dictates everything as they hold the ball. Realistically, if any of the above plays work it's because the defense allowed them to work.

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